State of the Lumber Market: What Builders Need to Know Going Into Q4 2025

If you’re a custom home builder, you’ve probably noticed the same thing we’re seeing: lumber pricing is bouncing around more than usual, and suppliers aren’t always quick to pass along the best rates.

At Links Materials Group, we track lumber packages across multiple suppliers and multiple projects every single week. Here’s what the market is telling us right now:

1. Volatility Is the New Normal

Lumber prices aren’t swinging 40% overnight like they did in 2021, but the mini-spikes and drops are still there. A builder who priced a package in July may be paying 8–10% more (or less) by September if they didn’t shop it. The difference adds up across a project.

2. Supplier Loyalty Cuts Both Ways

Most builders rely on one main supplier who gets things to the jobsite reliably. That relationship is valuable, but it also makes it easy to stop checking other options. We’re consistently seeing that loyalty = convenience, but it often comes with 8–12% higher total spend.

3. Time Is the Real Bottleneck

Builders know they could shop quotes around, but the reality is no one has the hours to call three yards, wait on callbacks, and track quotes in spreadsheets. So the job gets done, but the margin is left on the table.

4. The Quiet Opportunity

By aggregating quotes across suppliers and projects, we’re seeing opportunities to save between 8–12% per lumber package without disrupting existing supplier relationships. The key is knowing which suppliers are most competitive on which products, and when.

What This Means for Builders

Margins are thin, and time is even thinner. Builders who find a way to stay plugged into competitive pricing without taking on extra work are going to protect themselves the best heading into 2026.

At Links, we’re acting as an outsourced procurement department. Gathering quotes, analyzing trends, and delivering savings, all while making sure the suppliers you already trust keep delivering on time.

Closing Thought

If you’re curious what the current lumber market means for your next project, the easiest way to find out is simple: Send us your upcoming material list. We’ll shop it, compare it, and show you exactly where the opportunities are — no obligation.